Will the 2015 Election affect housing in the UK?
With the 2015 general election fast approaching, it seems pertinent in our adviser magazine to look at the possible effects that a new, or even remaining, party would have on the housing industry. As we speak, the opinion polls are generally showing a close fought game, with the possibility of a hung parliament and another coalition being spoken of. But do any of these parties offer anything other than over-inflated projections of house building and speculative changes in the approach to the industry? Insight takes a look at the main parties vying for your vote this May:
Conservative
Whilst the Conservative party and its leader David Cameron look to take advantage of an arguably unpopular Labour leader, their policies on housing still outline a determination to create more homes and to give first-time buyers the best chance to get onto the property ladder.
Some of their reforms in this current term have proven relatively successful, with many homes being purchased as a direct result of polices such as Help-to Buy and the re-established Right-to-Buy. With the new Rent-to-Buy scheme also proposed at the 2014 party conference, it seems the Conservatives are determined to continue on the path to what they feel is a healthier housing market.
Also in last year’s conference, Cameron outlined a plan to build 100,000 new starter homes, selling them to first-time buyers at a 20% discount, if they won the next election. But to some experts, this does not do enough to address some fundamental problems underlying the industry and the continuing issue of affordable housing.
Even in their own manifesto, the Conservatives recognise that “houses are just too expensive”, with some areas of the country seeing house prices now seven times the annual salary. It is clear that they recognise the problems, but whether the voters believe they can solve them, is a different matter.
Labour
Ed Milliband’s big promise to build 200,000 homes a year by 2020 has received a mixed response, with some suggesting it is simply a vote-winning speculation, instead of a policy-based plan. But according to the National Planning Policy Framework (NPPF) Plan for Housing document, “It is estimated that around 232,000 new homes are required each year, and in the 12 months ending September 2014, only 117,070 houses were completed.” This highlights a major shortfall that has made housing a hot topic in the economic and political world. Labour also hope that their “use it or lose it” policy on housing will prevent developers from hoarding usable land to sell at a bigger price.
Interestingly, some areas where the housing shortage is felt the most are where the political swing could determine the outcome of the election itself. Labour would therefore be unwise not to use this time to back up their targets with a realistic plan to help with the ever-rising waiting lists for social housing in areas such as Burnley and Brighton, two key Labour targets. In fact, Burnley has seen waiting list numbers rise from 326 in 2009 to 2,001 in 2014.
The main opposition party also pledged to double the number of first-time buyers in the market. But again, this was not backed up with any real details, leaving many scratching their heads as to Labour’s clear plans to directly tackle the housing crisis.
Liberal Democrats
As the party that has seen the biggest decline in popularity since the Coalition’s inception in 2010, the Liberal Democrats and Nick Clegg are struggling to reinforce their left wing status by opposing David Cameron’s cautious approach to housebuilding. But their own plans seem slightly too ambitious for some experts, promising in 2012 to raise housebuilding to 300,000 homes a year, a full 50% higher than Labour’s own pledge.
Other plans laid out in the 2014 Liberal Democrats conference suggested that councils should be allowed to suspend Right-to-Buy privileges, until housing stock is suitably replaced in that area. More social housing to support the promise of 300,000 homes and a new Housing Investment Bank were also pledged, which would simplify the allocation of public funds and draw in private finance.
The Liberal Democrats also argue that the key factor in the housing crisis is the Government’s lack of direct control and power in the industry. In a slightly radical approach, they propose to address both the nature of the market and the supply of housing by giving the Government the role of Commissioner of Housing. This would apply to both the social housing sector and the growing private sector. These are certainly interesting policies, but as their popularity dwindles, it is surely only another coalition that would potentially see their plans implemented.
UKIP
As the political parties tussle back and forth over their pivotal and vote-winning policies such as UKIP’s (led by Nigel Farage) stance on immigration, studying their other policies on equally big issues such as housing, is often overlooked. Mark Henderson, chief executive of Home Group, suggested that “although housing may not be top of the agenda nationwide, it is a critical factor in key marginal seats”. It is indeed rarely a headline-maker in the mainstream papers, but for the thousands struggling to get onto the property ladder, it may be a key factor in how they vote this May.
UKIP’s National Housing Spokesman Andrew Charalambous has big plans for the industry. Unsurprisingly, his central stance is the link between “open-door” immigration policies and the housing crisis. He argues that the immigration policies of the current and previous governments did not factor in a potential housing shortage.
UKIP therefore propose to prioritise Brownfield land and disused industrial sites in their housing policies, protecting what they feel is treasured Greenbelt land. Mr Charalambous also points out that there are currently 700,000 properties lying empty. UKIP also plan to introduce binding planning referenda, giving local people and councils more power and incentive to build and shape their own local areas. The party definitely has some strong plans for the future of UK housing, with their views possibly bearing fruit if they become part of the Government come May.
Green Party
The party that has recently seen the most rapid increase in its supporters, could also be the party that would create the biggest movement in the industry. Voters possibly looking for a new form of Government, or disenfranchised left wing supporters unhappy since Nick Clegg’s alignment with the Conservative party, have begun to side with the Greens. This has meant a new surge in support for Natalie Bennett’s party. But where do they stand on the important subject of housing?
Like UKIP, The Green Party recognise the need to look at the number of homes currently unused, but primarily focus on an increase in social housing across the country. In their policies, they speak of “the inability of the free market to meet diverse housing needs and a lack of investment in public housing spanning over two decades”.
They clearly feel that the approach to housing needs to be fundamentally changed, ushering in an era of “housing policies under local participatory democratic control.” This type of localisation echoes throughout the party’s polices, as they seek to “increase the amount of social housing and commonly owned housing”. The Greens no doubt have conviction in their beliefs, but whether their recent rise in the polls has come too close to the election to gain political power, remains to be seen.